Future of Buddhism discussion topic: World depopulation and it's effect on Buddhism

Retirement age will increase, we will have to bet on robots to become caregivers or else there will not be enough able bodied people to do so. There will be lesser and lesser young people globally. And Africa seems to be getting a larger pie of the total population of the world.

So how does this impact Buddhism into the future?

Given that total percentage of Buddhism is still a small fraction of the world, it might not have too much of an impact as we can imagine Buddhism to be like a country. The amount of people who converted later in life is similar to immigration into the Buddhism nation. The amount of Buddhist parents who successfully raise their kids as Buddhist and stay a Buddhist is our birth rate and the amount of those who leave the religion is the immigration out of the nation.

The total number seems to be remaining almost the same until 2050, then perhaps eventually like the global population collapsing, total number of Buddhists might collapse.

A key factor to see growth is the conversion of the growing conversion of Africans into Buddhism, whereby investment into cultivating African monks, training them, helping them to establish a monastery in their home continent, and providing the expertise, translations etc would mark a great investment into growing the total number of Buddhists into the future.

In terms of amount of young people who could become monks, if Buddhism manage to continue to spread amongst young people, and only a certain percentage of them would be willing to become monks, it highly depends on whether the global population decrease of young people is faster or the conversion of them is faster. With less young monks, we might be seeing less senior monks into the future who are multi talented in academics, meditation and so on, and thus a weaker Saáč…gha in general.

As retirement age increases around the world, those who would wish to become monastics when they retire would really be at even a greater disadvantage as they would have less time for their own self practice. If they are wise, they should quit immediately and just become a monastic, instead of trying to save up money for family, when universal basic income is likely the global solution for AI induced poverty. But still, since it’s not for certain that this future would happen yet, it’s understandable why people would prefer to continue working.

As countries like China, South Korean, Japan, etc continue to shrink in total population size and immigration would be very difficult due to language and cultural barrier, there will be many temples, monasteries etc, which will become empty and abandoned. Should any monastics already having the language requirement, it might be a prime real estate to take over those abandoned monasteries. But then one would lack the devotees to serve to as well. Whereas other places like in Africa, they would need fundings to build their monasteries. So nations which can produce a lot of monks might want to consider training their monks in languages of the countries which they are likely to be sent to for ease of delivering dhamma talks in the local language.

English Buddhism by no means is a saturated market yet, but in general most developed countries are at below replacement level fertility rate, and one might be well advised to focus on countries still with above replacement level fertility rate for best return on investment.

Of course, all are deserving of the treasure of the Buddha’s Dhamma. In the short term, it seems that there will still be more younger monks compared to older ones, but when those young monks become old, it might be much harder to get young people to become monastics, especially when Africa’s birth rate would go below replacement levels as well. Then by that time, the only way Buddhism could continue as before is to increase total number of Buddhist as percentage of the world’s population, which seems unlikely for now. And even if 100% of the world became Buddhists, the world population would still shrink. And we would eventually have lesser and lesser lay people to support lesser and lesser monastics. Who knows, maybe humanity would go extinct this way or maybe after Universal Basic income, nuclear dismantling, world unification, carbon removal from the atmosphere, global healing, everyone going vegan, birth rate might grow back to replacement level. Or we become pseudo immortals, to live as long as earth or the universe allows us to live.

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The man in the video I have read touted as one of the world’s great thinkers. He concludes these videos with the future salvation of “drugs & computer games for useless eaters” & “hacking & manipulating human beings”. “We must reinvent so humans are technologically hackable animals”. The 4th video is its great vision of the future, which even mentions “compassion”.

The population is not a problem. It are the ideas. So, what is considered Dhamma. I think you can also see this in christianity. In the Netherlands the Churches are empty or teared down or became houses etc.

But many people are still seekers, are spiritual, religeous. But they cannot relate anymore to certain ideas, for example, the idea of an eternal, ruling, powerful all knowing God. I think ideas are the problem. In the Netherlands there are also priest who teach a christianity without that God and they blaim the Church for having introduced all kinds of philosophical/complex ideas that people cannot relate to. The cause for people leaving the Church they feel is that the Church has invented doctrines that nobody can understand. The heart of christianity is covered up with all kinds of complex ideas.

Your idea that the end of mind, of consciousness, of feeling, of perceiving, of all knowing
 is the great bliss we all seek, i believe, also will destroy buddhism. Because this is not really what people seek. We do not really seek to vanish like a flame going out, in a final death. This idea will destroy buddhism, i believe because it just does not resonate in the hearts of people. It is alien to their hearts. People will only think negative and low about buddhism when they discover that the true goal of Dhamma is vanishing for ever after a final death with nothing remaining. And i feel it is justified too that they cannot connect to it. Normal.

If you think about it, your idea of Dhamma comes down to: a Buddha reduces all to matter. All minds and consciousness will cease to exist, but not matter. Now we are all freed?? This is the freedom beings seek? This is the great beauty of Dhamma?

I believe, such Ideas will quickly make an end to Dhamma. It are ideas we have to be concerned about when it comes down to the question if there is a future for buddhism. I do not see a future for a buddhism that teaches mere cessation.

Just wait until global heating really hits its stride. The last 13-14 consecutive months have been the hottest globally since records began being kept. Many of the southeast Asian nations where Buddhism (alongside Islam) is the prevalent religion are in a region where wetbulb temperatures (basically high temps and humidity that larger beings such as humans will be unable to slaugh off through sweating) will skyrocket, making them practically unliveable. Migration from those lands to cooler latitudes will be in the 100’s of millions. Who knows what kind of strife that will create? It will be terrible and extremely tragic. Imo, on levels that are currently unimaginable. Suffering? Oh, yeah, plenty of it.

Once things really get rolling how religions are doing will take a back seat. Except maybe Christianity, where those folks will blame the wrath of their god and proclaim their prophesied Revelation end-times.

That said, the Dhamma will always be there.

Below is some non-Buddhist climate change reading for you.

My apologies for being a Gloomy Gus.

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This :point_up_2: Yes, Most people cling to existence and want to live forever. How do u sell what would look like permanent suicide to them :woman_shrugging:t2:

I think people like it as a philosophy and lifestyle to a fair degree - but not the end goal.

I should add to ( just for insight purposes) Buddhism is losing some people to the Spiritualist church - which off the top of my head has grown 4 fold between the last two census reports.

At times 1/2 my class have come over from Buddhism and one of the main reasons they give for doing so, is that they don’t feel able to openly talk about about their spiritual experiences (gained as side effects of meditation) that border on the supernatural / paranormal and say they get frowned upon if/ when they do.

So they want somewhere where they are free to express themselves without judgement 
 and talk about these things.

We have 7 principles- but no rules or dogma.

I think in light of that, Buddhism could perhaps address the reasons people are feeling unheard and not be so closed lipped about it. :pray:

Reality is that there is no agreement among buddhist teachers on the end goal. The idea that the end goal is a mere cessation is quit rare in buddhism and among buddhist teachers. It might be here the leading idea, but the idea is quit rare. I believe @Dhabba said that among the early schools of buddhism only one school hold this idea. I do not know this.

Mere cessationalist use the mantra
only suffering gets lost when all comes to end for me.
But i do not think there is any person on this Earth who really knows this. It is all hammered out by reasoning and a beliefsystem.

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As the German philosopher Hans-Georg Gadamer used to say: All in all, human kind are recipients, not makers or controllers of circumstances. The above “brilliant thinkers” seem to miss this point somewhat.

The future is not set in stone. And there are occasional news snippets like the following that makes one think.

Over the past 50 years, human sperm counts appear to have fallen by more than 50% around the globe, according to an updated review of medical literature.
(CNN)

Does something else have a hand in our play ?

Also, with a major energy crisis predicted since the 1970’s still possibly around the corner, that may “solve” some of the AI and technology issues 


The Buddhadhamma will offer the same, firm philosophical grounding in the changing times ahead of us. And I personally believe that antinatalism is implied in it somewhat.

As it happens, there was a good article on this in today’s Guardian.

Note that for many of the people who are pushing the population scare (Musk, etc.), their underlying concern is not that population will decline per se. They believe in the Great Replacement Theory, namely that white people will be outbred by people of color. It’s modern eugenics.

Population decline is good. We’d be better off with fewer than a billion humans. Humanity could then live on this planet happily and and healthily for many millennia, flourishing in balance together with a rich and dynamic ecosystem.

This is perhaps tangential to the thread, but I’d be interested to discuss it if you wanted to open a new thread.

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I’m not sure if I understood you correctly, are you suggesting that one shouldn’t teach the truth of cessation because it could decrease the number of Buddhists?

Good for whom? Are you suggesting it’s better to be reborn as an animal than as a human?

Well, good then, hopefully this might automatically remove the causes of global warming by then, maybe 200 years into the future, also hopefully, humans by then can figure out how to make sure the birth rate remains at replacement level more or less in an ethical manner.

In the meantime, on the way there, there will be lots of changes and if Buddhism plays the cards right, the total % of Buddhists in the world’s stage might increase.

Noted :slightly_smiling_face: I actually edited/ added what I’m seeing from the other side as an after thought, but yes I’ll make a post about it tonight.

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I’m rapidly learning this - on a great many topics within Buddhism. :blush:

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All due respect, Bhante, if I may
 If we take human centrism out of the equation, I imagine that a fly - for example and from its perspective - would be pretty happy to be a fly. To a fly a pile of crap would be like heaven, as a fly it can fly, and when a maggot, squiggling around in a rotting carcass with 1000’s upon 1000’s of its compatriot maggots would likely be pure bliss. Don’t discount that 24 to 48 hour lifespan when afterward the fly would experience rebirth into a new existence (a very quick turnaround), possibly even as a human. LOL, side-thought: what kind of karma would a fly create?

Yes, I could be satisfied with being reborn as a fly. :slightly_smiling_face:

Nothing in Samsara is truly like Heaven. Well, I personally think that Heaven and Nibbana are Transcendental to anything that can be found here. And when we find Heaven or Nibbana within, our time in Samsara is abolished. Then there is no more fire. There is only Peace.

So no, poo poo, is not, well 
 !

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Lower case “h,” not upper case. LOL :grinning:

Edit: Oh, and I don’t know if basking in poo-poo would be grounds for a fly Nibbana awakening. But, you never know. :slightly_smiling_face:

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I understand. If we seek Awakening we can even help the flies even seek a rebirth in a form of life by which they are able to form long and lasting, resourceful and inwardly pleasant lifestyles that they do not have in their lower species form of flies. Buddhist practices of Metta and nonviolence towards species like flies may bring them closer to a human rebirth.

:innocent: May you find Enlightenment soon, so that all beings may all be happy.

Sunyata dictates that we are all interconnected, and one Awakened One can change the entire Cosmos. Namaste.

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12 posts were split to a new topic: Parinibbana as mere cessation

Perhaps this kind of reflection should be reframed as

“What are the causes behind one kind of religion/ belief system thriving and another declining? What are the qualities that a particular religion/ belief system has that causes it to thrive over another at different times?”

IMO, Humans invariably require a coherent framework/ belief system to deal with their Reality. This framework is what informs them of their place within the world and gives them a sense of purpose.

Social environments change. Particular kinds of belief systems acquire meme status and spread widely in different kinds of social environments.

A world with declining resources will inevitably lead to intense competition, even War. At the same time there will be increased Control of the ‘Elites’ over the dispossessed ‘Useless Eater’ class whom they still cannot do without
 because who else will do the dirty work? AI and technology will play a great role in amplifying the damage that can be done both in War as well as in Control.

IMO, two kinds of belief systems usually attain dominance in such circumstances -

  1. Highly Aggressive (characterized by centralized authority figure/s, hierarchical command structures, ethical systems that promote justification for one’s own superiority over the other and compulsory participation) and
  2. Highly Passive (characterized by passive-aggressive non acceptance of authority, non engagement with societal structures, moral rationalization and passivity).

Interestingly , all the major religions have elements that can be tailored to appeal to either segment.

Yes, even Buddhism can be tweaked to appeal to highly aggressive elements - the progroms run by ‘Buddhist’ monks and the Myanmar junta against the Rohingya being an example. And Islam was tweaked via Sufisim to appeal to the highly passive requirements of the dispossessed during the Caliphate wars. Literally mirror images of how we might think of these religions otherwise
 :upside_down_face:

So, all in all IMO Buddhism can and will survive, even if the Buddha’s Teaching is lost.

But which should I personally follow?

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I’ll just say: I think there’s a reason so many people are so afraid of spiders :wink:

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