Probability of our civilisation to survive without facing a catastrophic collapse estimated at less than 10% in most optimistic scenario

One of suttas selected by King Asoka that Lay and Monastics should read and study.

https://www.accesstoinsight.org/lib/authors/thanissaro/asoka.html

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:pray: Thank you for finding them for me @Upasaka_Dhammasara :slightly_smiling_face:

Future Dangers: I

Monks, these five future dangers are just enough, when considered, for a monk living in the wilderness — heedful, ardent, and resolute — to live for the attaining of the as-yet-unattained, the reaching of the as-yet-unreached, the realization of the as-yet-unrealized. Which five?

There is the case where a monk living in the wilderness reminds himself of this: I am now living alone in the wilderness. While I am living alone in the wilderness a snake might bite me, a scorpion might sting me, a centipede might bite me. That would be how my death would come about. That would be an obstruction for me. So let me make an effort for the attaining of the as-yet-unattained, the reaching of the as-yet-unreached, the realization of the as-yet-unrealized.

This is the first future danger that is just enough, when considered, for a monk living in the wilderness — heedful, ardent, and resolute — to live for the attaining of the as-yet-unattained, the reaching of the as-yet-unreached, the realization of the as-yet-unrealized.

Furthermore, the monk living in the wilderness reminds himself of this: I am now living alone in the wilderness. While I am living alone in the wilderness, stumbling, I might fall; my food, digested, might trouble me; my bile might be provoked, my phlegm… piercing wind forces (in the body) might be provoked. That would be how my death would come about. That would be an obstruction for me. So let me make an effort for the attaining of the as-yet-unattained, the reaching of the as-yet-unreached, the realization of the as-yet-unrealized.

This is the second future danger that is just enough, when considered, for a monk living in the wilderness — heedful, ardent, and resolute — to live for the attaining of the as-yet-unattained, the reaching of the as-yet-unreached, the realization of the as-yet-unrealized.

Furthermore, the monk living in the wilderness reminds himself of this: I am now living alone in the wilderness. While I am living alone in the wilderness, I might meet up with vicious beasts: a lion or a tiger or a leopard or a bear or a hyena. They might take my life. That would be how my death would come about. That would be an obstruction for me. So let me make an effort for the attaining of the as-yet-unattained, the reaching of the as-yet-unreached, the realization of the as-yet-unrealized.

This is the third future danger that is just enough, when considered, for a monk living in the wilderness — heedful, ardent, and resolute — to live for the attaining of the as-yet-unattained, the reaching of the as-yet-unreached, the realization of the as-yet-unrealized.

Furthermore, the monk living in the wilderness reminds himself of this: I am now living alone in the wilderness. While I am living alone in the wilderness, I might meet up with youths on their way to committing a crime or on their way back. They might take my life. That would be how my death would come about. That would be an obstruction for me. So let me make an effort for the attaining of the as-yet-unattained, the reaching of the as-yet-unreached, the realization of the as-yet-unrealized.

This is the fourth future danger that is just enough, when considered, for a monk living in the wilderness — heedful, ardent, and resolute — to live for the attaining of the as-yet-unattained, the reaching of the as-yet-unreached, the realization of the as-yet-unrealized.

Furthermore, the monk living in the wilderness reminds himself of this: I am now living alone in the wilderness. And in the wilderness are vicious non-human beings (spirits). They might take my life. That would be how my death would come about. That would be an obstruction for me. So let me make an effort for the attaining of the as-yet-unattained, the reaching of the as-yet-unreached, the realization of the as-yet-unrealized.

This is the fifth future danger that is just enough, when considered, for a monk living in the wilderness — heedful, ardent, and resolute — to live for the attaining of the as-yet-unattained, the reaching of the as-yet-unreached, the realization of the as-yet-unrealized.

These are the five future dangers that are just enough, when considered, for a monk living in the wilderness — heedful, ardent, and resolute — to live for the attaining of the as-yet-unattained, the reaching of the as-yet-unreached, the realization of the as-yet-unrealized.

— AN 5.77

Future Dangers: II

Monks, these five future dangers are just enough, when considered, for a monk — heedful, ardent, and resolute — to live for the attaining of the as-yet-unattained, the reaching of the as-yet-unreached, the realization of the as-yet-unrealized. Which five?

There is the case where a monk reminds himself of this: At present I am young, black-haired, endowed with the blessings of youth in the first stage of life. The time will come, though, when this body is beset by old age. When one is overcome with old age and decay, it is not easy to pay attention to the Buddha’s teachings. It is not easy to reside in isolated forest or wilderness dwellings. Before this unwelcome, disagreeable, displeasing thing happens, let me first make an effort for the attaining of the as-yet-unattained, the reaching of the as-yet-unreached, the realization of the as-yet-unrealized, so that — endowed with that Dhamma — I will live in peace even when old.

This is the first future danger that is just enough, when considered, for a monk — heedful, ardent, and resolute — to live for the attaining of the as-yet-unattained, the reaching of the as-yet-unreached, the realization of the as-yet-unrealized.

Furthermore, the monk reminds himself of this: At present I am free from illness and discomfort, endowed with good digestion: not too cold, not too hot, of medium strength and tolerance. The time will come, though, when this body is beset with illness. When one is overcome with illness, it is not easy to pay attention to the Buddha’s teachings. It is not easy to reside in isolated forest or wilderness dwellings. Before this unwelcome, disagreeable, displeasing thing happens, let me first make an effort for the attaining of the as-yet-unattained, the reaching of the as-yet-unreached, the realization of the as-yet-unrealized, so that — endowed with that Dhamma — I will live in peace even when ill.

This is the second future danger that is just enough, when considered, for a monk — heedful, ardent, and resolute — to live for the attaining of the as-yet-unattained, the reaching of the as-yet-unreached, the realization of the as-yet-unrealized.

Furthermore, the monk reminds himself of this: At present food is plentiful, alms are easy to come by. It is easy to maintain oneself by gleanings and patronage. The time will come, though, when there is famine: Food is scarce, alms are hard to come by, and it is not easy to maintain oneself by gleanings and patronage. When there is famine, people will congregate where food is plentiful. There they will live packed and crowded together. When one is living packed and crowded together, it is not easy to pay attention to the Buddha’s teachings. It is not easy to reside in isolated forest or wilderness dwellings. Before this unwelcome, disagreeable, displeasing thing happens, let me first make an effort for the attaining of the as-yet-unattained, the reaching of the as-yet-unreached, the realization of the as-yet-unrealized, so that — endowed with that Dhamma — I will live in peace even when there is famine.

This is the third future danger that is just enough, when considered, for a monk — heedful, ardent, and resolute — to live for the attaining of the as-yet-unattained, the reaching of the as-yet-unreached, the realization of the as-yet-unrealized.

Furthermore, the monk reminds himself of this: At present people are in harmony, on friendly terms, without quarreling, like milk mixed with water, viewing one another with eyes of affection. The time will come, though, when there is danger and an invasion of savage tribes. Taking power, they will surround the countryside. When there is danger, people will congregate where it is safe. There they will live packed and crowded together. When one is living packed and crowded together, it is not easy to pay attention to the Buddha’s teachings. It is not easy to reside in isolated forest or wilderness dwellings. Before this unwelcome, disagreeable, displeasing thing happens, let me first make an effort for the attaining of the as-yet-unattained, the reaching of the as-yet-unreached, the realization of the as-yet-unrealized, so that — endowed with that Dhamma — I will live in peace even when there is danger.

This is the fourth future danger that is just enough, when considered, for a monk — heedful, ardent, and resolute — to live for the attaining of the as-yet-unattained, the reaching of the as-yet-unreached, the realization of the as-yet-unrealized.

Furthermore, the monk reminds himself of this: At present the Sangha — in harmony, on friendly terms, without quarreling — lives in comfort with a single recitation. The time will come, though, when the Sangha splits. When the Sangha is split, it is not easy to pay attention to the Buddha’s teachings. It is not easy to reside in isolated forest or wilderness dwellings. Before this unwelcome, disagreeable, displeasing thing happens, let me first make an effort for the attaining of the as-yet-unattained, the reaching of the as-yet-unreached, the realization of the as-yet-unrealized, so that — endowed with that Dhamma — I will live in peace even when the Sangha is split.

This is the fifth future danger that is just enough, when considered, for a monk — heedful, ardent, and resolute — to live for the attaining of the as-yet-unattained, the reaching of the as-yet-unreached, the realization of the as-yet-unrealized.

These are the five future dangers that are just enough, when considered, for a monk — heedful, ardent, and resolute — to live for the attaining of the as-yet-unattained, the reaching of the as-yet-unreached, the realization of the as-yet-unrealized.

— AN 5.78

Future Dangers: III

Monks, these five future dangers, unarisen at present, will arise in the future. Be alert to them and, being alert, work to get rid of them. Which five?

There will be, in the course of the future, monks undeveloped in body [according to MN 36, this means that pleasure can invade their minds and remain there], undeveloped in virtue, undeveloped in mind [pain can invade their minds and remain there], undeveloped in discernment. They — being undeveloped in body, undeveloped in virtue, undeveloped in mind, undeveloped in discernment — will give full ordination to others and will not be able to discipline them in heightened virtue, heightened mind, heightened discernment. These too will then be undeveloped in body… virtue… mind… discernment. They — being undeveloped in body… virtue… mind… discernment — will give full ordination to still others and will not be able to discipline them in heightened virtue, heightened mind, heightened discernment. These too will then be undeveloped in body… virtue… mind… discernment. Thus from corrupt Dhamma comes corrupt discipline; from corrupt discipline, corrupt Dhamma.

This, monks, is the first future danger, unarisen at present, that will arise in the future. Be alert to it and, being alert, work to get rid of it.

And again, there will be in the course of the future monks undeveloped in body, undeveloped in virtue, undeveloped in mind, undeveloped in discernment. They — being undeveloped in body, undeveloped in virtue, undeveloped in mind, undeveloped in discernment — will take on others as students and will not be able to discipline them in heightened virtue, heightened mind, heightened discernment. These too will then be undeveloped in body… virtue… mind… discernment. They — being undeveloped in body… virtue… mind… discernment — will take on still others as students and will not be able to discipline them in heightened virtue, heightened mind, heightened discernment. These too will then be undeveloped in body… virtue… mind… discernment. Thus from corrupt Dhamma comes corrupt discipline; from corrupt discipline, corrupt Dhamma.

This, monks, is the second future danger, unarisen at present, that will arise in the future. Be alert to it and, being alert, work to get rid of it.

And again, there will be in the course of the future monks undeveloped in body… virtue… mind… discernment. They — being undeveloped in body… virtue… mind… discernment — when giving a talk on higher Dhamma or a talk composed of questions and answers, will fall into dark mental states without being aware of it. Thus from corrupt Dhamma comes corrupt discipline; from corrupt discipline, corrupt Dhamma.

This, monks, is the third future danger, unarisen at present, that will arise in the future. Be alert to it and, being alert, work to get rid of it.

And again, there will be in the course of the future monks undeveloped in body… virtue… mind… discernment. They — being undeveloped in body… virtue… mind… discernment — will not listen when discourses that are words of the Tathagata — deep, profound, transcendent, connected with the Void — are being recited. They will not lend ear, will not set their hearts on knowing them, will not regard these teachings as worth grasping or mastering. But they will listen when discourses that are literary works — the works of poets, elegant in sound, elegant in rhetoric, the work of outsiders, words of disciples — are recited. They will lend ear and set their hearts on knowing them. They will regard these teachings as worth grasping and mastering. Thus from corrupt Dhamma comes corrupt discipline; from corrupt discipline, corrupt Dhamma.

This, monks, is the fourth future danger, unarisen at present, that will arise in the future. Be alert to it and, being alert, work to get rid of it.

And again, there will be in the course of the future monks undeveloped in body… virtue… mind… discernment. They — being undeveloped in body… virtue… mind… discernment — will become elders living in luxury, lethargic, foremost in falling back, shirking the duties of solitude. They will not make an effort for the attaining of the as-yet-unattained, the reaching of the as-yet-unreached, the realization of the as-yet-unrealized. They will become an example for later generations, who will become luxurious in their living, lethargic, foremost in falling back, shirking the duties of solitude, and who will not make an effort for the attaining of the as-yet-unattained, the reaching of the as-yet-unreached, the realization of the as-yet-unrealized. Thus from corrupt Dhamma comes corrupt discipline; from corrupt discipline, corrupt Dhamma.

This, monks, is the fifth future danger, unarisen at present, that will arise in the future. Be alert to it and, being alert, work to get rid of it.

These, monks, are the five future dangers, unarisen at present, that will arise in the future. Be alert to them and, being alert, work to get rid of them.

— AN 5.79

Future Dangers: IV

Monks, these five future dangers, unarisen at present, will arise in the future. Be alert to them and, being alert, work to get rid of them. Which five?

There will be, in the course of the future, monks desirous of fine robes. They, desirous of fine robes, will neglect the practice of wearing cast-off cloth; will neglect isolated forest and wilderness dwellings; will move to towns, cities, and royal capitals, taking up residence there. For the sake of a robe they will do many kinds of unseemly, inappropriate things.

This, monks, is the first future danger, unarisen at present, that will arise in the future. Be alert to it and, being alert, work to get rid of it.

Furthermore, in the course of the future there will be monks desirous of fine food. They, desirous of fine food, will neglect the practice of going for alms; will neglect isolated forest and wilderness dwellings; will move to towns, cities, and royal capitals, taking up residence there and searching out the tip-top tastes with the tip of the tongue. For the sake of food they will do many kinds of unseemly, inappropriate things.

This, monks, is the second future danger, unarisen at present, that will arise in the future. Be alert to it and, being alert, work to get rid of it.

Furthermore, in the course of the future there will be monks desirous of fine lodgings. They, desirous of fine lodgings, will neglect the practice of living in the wilds; will neglect isolated forest and wilderness dwellings; will move to towns, cities, and royal capitals, taking up residence there. For the sake of lodgings they will do many kinds of unseemly, inappropriate things.

This, monks, is the third future danger, unarisen at present, that will arise in the future. Be alert to it and, being alert, work to get rid of it.

Furthermore, in the course of the future there will be monks who will live in close association with nuns, female probationers, and female novices. As they interact with nuns, female probationers, and female novices, they can be expected either to lead the holy life dissatisfied or to fall into one of the grosser offenses, leaving the training, returning to a lower way of life.

This, monks, is the fourth future danger, unarisen at present, that will arise in the future. Be alert to it and, being alert, work to get rid of it.

Furthermore, in the course of the future there will be monks who will live in close association with monastery attendants and novices. As they interact with monastery attendants and novices, they can be expected to live intent on storing up all kinds of possessions and to stake out crops and fields. This is the fifth future danger…

This, monks, is the fifth future danger, unarisen at present, that will arise in the future. Be alert to it and, being alert, work to get rid of it.

These, monks, are the five future dangers, unarisen at present, that will arise in the future. Be alert to them and, being alert, work to get rid of them.

— AN 5.80

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As northern summer reaches its end the extent of melting becomes known…

:grimacing:

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This recent article by UNDP describes some catastrophic changes that have occurred but reminds us of a bright way, very much in harmony with Buddha-Dhamma - boundless love in action - being a biodiversity champion while world stands still and people grieve over Covid.

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Indeed, this was shocking news. We shouldn’t take our eyes off the ball; global warming isn’t waiting for Covid-19 to be over. Just today, this terrible development from India, which invokes almost all of the worst aspects of environmental mismanagement.

@faujidoc1 I know it’s only a cartoon, but I think there is really a deep truth to it. We have to stop imagining that one fine day, people will just get it. The rivers of delusion run so very deeply. It’s telling how, even now, in the face of such a massive pandemic, the people who are in denial over the very obvious reality of the pandemic are the very same who have been in denial of climate change. No amount of research or evidence will ever shift them.

This is a lesson I learned, in fact, during the Hamburg Congress on bhikkhuni ordination. At the end of it all, after decades of thorough and detailed research had been presented, the Dalai Lama called for “more research”. It was on that day that I understood that for some people, “research” was a method for indefinite postponement of change.

Thanks Dana for the article. The UN has been one of the organizations that has tried to stand up for the environment, and made the link strongly and early between environmental destruction and the Covid-19 pandemic. Any solution to our problems rely on strengthening such responsible global institutions in their responses.

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In my circles it is quite opposite tendention Bhante. A lot of people who are into climate change and saving environment thinks COVID-19 to be overreaction (at least in high developed countries).

I think there is a huge difference, because COVID-19 is dangerous to people right now. And climate change is “far off” in the future (for people who care only for “next month”). So people who have totally wrong view, and just want to get as much fun and profit as possible until they die, no matter the consequences, they don’t care about climate change, but still can fear getting COVID-19, cause they might soon suffer unpleasant time or even health loss or death in worst cases.

In my observation COVID-19 shown how much most people are egoistic or thougtless. And it is vipallasas that I’m pointing to here. If people care only for their sense of self and self-gratification - this bends their perceptions, views and interpretations.

What is most sad, they don’t care about animal abuse which caused all zoogenic diseases like COVID-19 and many more like it. Instead of talking about stopping meat and dairy industry once and for all, which would hinder arising of such dangerous mutations in the future and stop all atrocities that happen in slaughterhouses, we are generally talking just how to save humans. All they care about is precious human lives, while it is humans that are generally the worst animal destroying the planet, and not many people care about most innocent beings that are “industry” animals, who were born just to be used as food without caring at all for their well-being. All these SARS, bird-flu, swine-flu etc. were zoogenic diseases caused by meat and dairy industry. Veganism is very importaint answer to both climate change and zoogenic diseases like COVID-19. Most people could easily live very healthly lives on vegan diet, and it would be more economically and enviromentally and morally efficient. Personally I think COVID-19 is kammic consequence of human cruelty towards innocent animals, because it is one of most un-dhammic thing happening in the world.

I find humans to be most egoistic and anti-enviromental beings on the planet. Of course few humans are most compassionate beings on the planet, but most humans care only for themselves. And while animals are regulated by their instincts (for example most animals don’t kill for fun, and don’t procreate when not needed), most humans indulge in defilements greatly. So they fear COVID-19, but they don’t care about climate change, because COVID-19 is dangerous to them right now, and climate change they perceive as not their future. Which confirms the fact that most people who care about climate change are young people, because it is their future. So it all again comes down to sense of self.

Such is my take from a perspective of living in Europe. I know I’m very cynical here, but sadly I believe this is the sad truth of the matter. Ignorance, greed and pride (and general strong selfing) are greatest defilements of modern times. COVID-19, “animal industry” and climate change taken together is such deeply samvega inducing phenomena for me that it made me much more dedicated practitioner, including taking more precepts and deciding to ordain, because Buddha-Dhamma is the only refuge I find in such world, and a best antidote for the defilements at the same time.

I’m sorry if I sound too apocalyptic or negative, but I feel and think that my perspective simply is adequate to the very bad situation of moral condition of human population and its effects on enviroment and all beings living on Earth. I really hope that this madness will stop, but I don’t know if reason and heart will win with the defilements and I sadly doubt it and IMO at least big crisis is almost sure. Worst case scenario is that most life on earth will perish. :frowning:

A few images that can provoke some thinking:

graph

a

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d

With Metta and Karuna. :heart:

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This is very worrying…

“(…) most water in the Indus, which flows west from Mount Kangrinboqe, comes from the snows and glaciers of the Himalaya, the Karakoram, and the Hindu Kush. Glaciers especially are “water towers”:
They store winter snowfall as ice, high in the mountains, and they surrender it as meltwater in spring and summer. In this way, they provide a steady flow that nourishes humans and ecosystems.
Downstream, in the plains of Pakistan and northern India, the world’s most extensive system of irrigated agriculture depends on the Indus.
The glaciers that feed it are a lifeline for some 270 million people.”
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2020/07/water-crisis-looms-for-270-million-people-south-asia-perpetual-feature/

:slightly_frowning_face:

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Interesting. I guess I was thinking of the situation in the States. I can see how you’d think that in the long term, climate change is vastly more significant than COVID. Still, they are really both symptoms of the underlying problem, our destruction of nature.

I know exactly how you feel! It is sad and scary and happening all around every day.

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A pertinent article:

The article links to this, which is an interesting project:

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Unfortunately, the situation in the States is far worse than these problems of convincing somewhat rational people what’s more or less an immediate crisis. Even if we manage to get a different administration, I doubt our culture will be righting itself for quite some time. We’ve been sliding down this slope of schizoid thinking for nearly 20 years now. It seemed like the Obama presidency would correct it, but it just accelerated during his tenure.

From “What is QAnon? A not-so-brief introduction to the conspiracy theory that’s eating America”:

Earlier this year, in March, I was talking to a friend about COVID-19 and the national lockdown. He’s 10 years older than me and lives in a small town in the Midwest. I live in Long Beach, California. While chatting with him on the phone about all the unexpected difficulties that have arisen from teaching my English classes online, he suddenly volunteered the opinion that COVID-19 would be a positive development in 2020.

“Yeah?” I asked. “How so?”

He proceeded to tell me, with complete sincerity, that after Trump is re-elected in 2020, he will deliver “free energy” to the people of America. Not only that, he’s also going to abolish the income tax. Right now, at this very moment , United States troops have been deployed underground where they’re busy “cleaning out” covert subterranean tunnels, “saving hundreds of children from satanic slaves,” and kicking out the “black hats.” Without skipping a beat, my friend then insisted that news of this game-changing development would be “coming out” soon.

“It’s a great thing,” he told me in measured tones. “Trump will have to use the Emergency Broadcast System to give this news to the American people because the media keeps lying and social media like Twitter and YouTube are censoring and deleting videos that report reality the way it actually is.”

Furthermore, my friend said in tones of absolute certainty, Trump supporters working behind the scenes (referred to by my friend as the “white hats”) had recently wrested control of the entire Google corporation from devil worshippers, which is why you could now retrieve “accurate information” from that particular search engine.

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:sunglasses:
(- Agent Smith from The Matrix)

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What scares me is that possibly humanness manifests in other parts of the universe, i.e. other planets, and very much likely the same situation takes place there. I mean, the rupa grasping aggregate must take other shapes, but certainly the impact and effect to the surroundings must be the same… :grimacing:

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Reminds me of SN15.3

At Savatthi. There the Blessed One said: “From an inconstruable beginning comes transmigration. A beginning point is not evident, though beings hindered by ignorance and fettered by craving are transmigrating & wandering on. What do you think, monks: Which is greater, the tears you have shed while transmigrating & wandering this long, long time—crying & weeping from being joined with what is displeasing, being separated from what is pleasing—or the water in the four great oceans?”
“Long have you (repeatedly) experienced the death of a father… the death of a brother… the death of a sister… the death of a son… the death of a daughter… loss with regard to relatives… loss with regard to wealth… loss with regard to disease. The tears you have shed over loss with regard to disease while transmigrating & wandering this long, long time—crying & weeping from being joined with what is displeasing, being separated from what is pleasing—are greater than the water in the four great oceans.

“Why is that? From an inconstruable beginning comes transmigration. A beginning point is not evident, though beings hindered by ignorance and fettered by craving are transmigrating & wandering on. Long have you thus experienced stress, experienced pain, experienced loss, swelling the cemeteries—enough to become disenchanted with all fabricated things, enough to become dispassionate, enough to be released.

But you know what? I have an alternate theory. (After all, this is the Watercooler!)

My theory is that Artificial Intelligence, Robots etc are simply another step forward in the Evolution of Species. Life is preparing to leave the planet… just like the tadpole becomes a frog to leave the pond. Mere flesh cannot bear interstellar space, but the rupa of metal and silicon can!
:joy: :upside_down_face: :rofl:

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It turns out, rationality is a lot thinner than we supposed.

One of the devastating results of conspiracy thinking is, as the quote you give so well illustrates, that people—even in the same family—end up living in entirely different realities. There are endless stories of people watching their relatives, often but not always, elderly, getting sucked into Fox news, and now QAnon. Heck, I’ve heard it, even in Oz, the shift into this bizarro alt-reality. It’s really devastating.

This conversation with mental health professionals is a good primer for how this happens.

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:grimacing:

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Rats! We’re all going to die. :meditation:

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It seems I’m fairly late to the topic. Something which hasn’t been discussed is the origin of the article in the original post. To the uninitiated, it may seem like the study was published in Nature. In fact, it was published in Scientific Reports, which has radically different editorial policies than Nature itself—even though it is a subsidiary of Nature Research. Scientific Reports accepts far more manuscripts (~48% vs. ~7%), has a much lower impact factor (4.0 vs. 42.8), and has been involved in far more controversies, including publishing junk science and plagiarized manuscripts, the latter leading to the resignation of 19 editorial board members (Scientific Reports - Wikipedia). This should be enough to remain somewhat suspicious of the author’s claims regarding catastrophic collapse.

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Thanks Robbie. For those of us outside academia, can you give a little explainer on how to go about checking these details for journals?

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