Probability of our civilisation to survive without facing a catastrophic collapse estimated at less than 10% in most optimistic scenario

Ha! That’s a good question. The doomer I know is convinced that we have to return to a pre-industrial society, or it’s over. So, this person does get very despondent whenever the conversation comes up, predicting the mass of extinction of most life on earth until I talk them down by pointing out that the world has been trying to make the switch to renewables, etc. The impression I have is that social media has been full of “environmental news and analysis” that focuses on “but that’s not good enough!” messages. As in, “solar power isn’t the solution because you use energy and plastic to manufacture them and did up all those rare earths!” So, these people have been painting themselves into a corner of despair. Their hearts are in the right place; it’s just amazing what social media does to people.

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