Message from Ollie, who raised the question originally . He included some tables but the formatting seems to have borked, sorry. Will try to fix - ok added screenshots of tables but also have left the text for those who use readers on the site
Wow, so many interesting responses, even the more off-topic answers did give me more ideas that had not entered my mind. Thank you again for posting the question on my behalf.
I thought I would take the time to write back and put my conclusions so far into greater detail, providing some context perhaps and clearing up some of the responders concerns with the ethics. This would be far too long for a casual forum post, but you may find it interesting.
I think I can see 3 big areas to cover - Getting to Mars, Terraforming it, Semantics/other.
I am an Environmental Scientist so I do look at problems from a technical mindset, and recognize that more ethical and even spiritual aspects will be overlooked by myself, hence my asking for some opinions. I don’t think I could start without putting everything into context, as a lot of the concerns raised where on the harm to Earth, Animals and Humans, wasting resources, colonization, personal enrichment etc etc.
Getting to Mars
Elon Musk is interesting, and I am of the opinion that acts should be the judge of a mans character, not his words. Making billions from selling the software Zip2 & Paypal, he used the money to found company’s that aim to solve big problems, and all work together ‘in synergy’. (Note - yes I know they run for profit, but if they did not, then they would stop existing and nothing would happen. Most of the profits are re-invested into the companies to help them grow to the bigger picture goal. Anāthapiṇḍika the banker is perhaps an example of profit gained well and spent well?) these I have condensed below:
Company (subsiduary) |
Big Picure Goal |
Stepping Stone Goal |
Issues fixed |
SpaceX |
|
|
|
(Starlink Internet)|* Make life Multi-planetary.
- Move resource extraction and industry off-Earth|* Make Rockets cheap and safe.
- Make the internet global and cheap.|* Pollution.
- Wasted tax money.
- Information poverty.
- Extinction.Long-trip air travel.|
|Tesla
(Solar City)|* Make energy production renewable.
- Make transportation renewable.|* Make batteries cheap.
- Make solar power cheap.
- Make driving easy and cheap.|* Pollution.
- Conflict metals in batteries.
- Lack of movement.
- Accidents.
- Expensive electricity.|
|The Boring Company
(Loop & Hyperloop)|* Make local and long distance transportation safer, faster and renewable.|* Make tunnelling machines fast, electric and self-sealing.
- Build short loops in congested cities.|* Pollution.
- Short-trip air travel.
- Accidents.|
The key point here is that all these efforts make life better on Earth, while at the same time providing the technology and funding for the larger project of Mars missions.
Meanwhile, it is important to consider the state of Space when he entered the market. NASA, and by extinction all other national space agencies and rocket makers where (and still are) stagnant. This is a result of ‘pork-barrel’ politics, killing innovation and raising costs sky-high and a lack of will to go to places where by law you can’t annex as territory, or extract any resources from. Quasi-serious MarsOne suicide one way trip missions to save on costs, and Richard Branson’s private space trips? A pathetic waste of money that only takes you over the 100km Karman Line for 10 minutes in a rocket-boosted-airplane so you can have the ego-trip of “I’ve been to space”. A true luxury rollercoster ride with no useful purpose.
Below is a comparison of Elon’s rockets and methods to the conventional National Space Agencies and rocket manufacturers.
Facts on… |
SpaceX |
NASA ( et al. ) |
Rockets |
* Re-usable, the Starship-Class ones having a usful life similar to that of an Airplane (30-40 years). |
|
- Made of Stainless Steel, almost fully recycleble.
- Airliner level of flight risk over total lifespan with design choices and inpections pre-and-post flight.|* One use only. (20 minutes lifespan).
- Made of composites, dispoded of by dumping into the sea.
- Minimize risk though single-use.|
|Fuel|* Engines use METHLOX, (liqued Methane and Oxygen).
- Production of fuals can take place localy on mars.
- Renewable. Electricity from green sorces extract the CO2 and O2 from the atmosphere and water to make and liquify both gases.
- Greenhouse Gas neutral.|* Engines use RP-1 (Kerosine) or Hydrazine.
- Non-renewable fossil-fuals.
- Greenhouse gas sources.
- Highly toxic to human health on contact with skin or lungs, environment.|
|Cost|* $2million to launch 100 tons to orbit.
- RnD - $2-5billion.
- Privately Funded by Elon’s Wallet and a donor.|* $110million to launch 20.5 tons to orbit.
- RnD - $18.5billion.
- USA taxpayer funded.|
|Risks|* Journey to Mars – 90 to 80 days.
- Passengers – 100 to 200.
- Habitat – Steel, Ice, concrete, Rock.
- Short journey times, thick rocket shielding, permanent Mars habitats with lots of people lowers radiation exposure and stress.
- Trip to Mars is a return trip.
- Communication local/Earth uses Starlink Internet.|* Journey to Mars – 180 to 200 days.
- Passengers – 5 to 10.
- Habitat – Aluminium, Pyrex, Kevlar.
- Long journey time, thin light rocket, temporary Mars habitats and few people increase radiation and stress to predicted dangerous levels.
- Some suggestions are for the trip to be one-way.
- Communication uses existing low-bandwidth satellites.|
With all this in mind, I feel that the considerations wisely brought up by the forum members about:
- Mission Safety
- Use of resources
- Use of time
are greatly alleviated by the amount of benefits alone the start-up industry has been created just to get to Mars, let alone the benefits of cheap and easy space access to come.
Terraforming
I saw two issues, the big one being the destruction of Martian life, and the resource cost to undertake it.
To get the latter out of the way, all efforts would use resources in-situ or in local space. Elon’s T-shirt ‘Nuke Mars[’ poles to warm them up and get bonus CO2] was a joke! A point was brought up about the lack of a magnetosphere on Mars, and how this would remove the atmosphere. True, this is why Mars has an atmospheric pressure of 1% of Earths. However, the loss is over Geological time. If I snapped my fingers and gave Mars an Earth-Atmosphere, it would take 1 to 5 Million years for the “Death Zone” of O2 partial pressure not being enough to sustain life (here on Earth, over 8000m up) to fall low enough on Mars to cover all the land. 1Million years is long enough to build an artificial one. They are small, solar-powered and could even be made today! The issue of 1/3 G on humans is an unknown. The latest research states that its 0 G that harms - Any G is healthy.
I would as a scientist and as a person be loathe to eradicate even local microscopic life, but we wont know if even that is there until people and robots go out and scan the world very thoroughly. I suspect Mars once had life, possibly even imported from Earth from a meteor fragment but they died out long ago, or if it did survive, it must be a lithophage, many kilometers under the surface. At least just going there to check wont harm anything. As a forum member pointed out, we Environmental Scientists do follow a precautionary principle.
Moving on, I’ll assume there is no life and Terraforming can take place.
Semantics/other
I saw a lot of talk about the implications of the word “colonization”. This is understandable, but I did mean it in a Biological manner. The introduction of specie’s and their flourishing in a new environment though ecological succession. I agree, we must be wise and not repeat the mistakes of the past, (Lucky unlike Australia, there are no intelligent locals on Mars - Sorry H.G Wells) however there is no economic argument for extracting resources and shipping it back to earth, even with Elon’s super-rockets the money just does not balance out. Asteroid-mining however is another subject. Same with Corporate, National and personal/ethnic pride. Its far more likely that after a few years those who stay on Mars will think of themselves as ‘Martian’. No nation can plant flags there and claim it, no corporation can make money there (besides intellectual research) and the journey is open to all who want to go. $230,000US for a return ticket. Works out about the same as the old days when emergrating to “The New World”. People being the ultimate resource working to maintain a city for eath other with the uniting goal of making the world outside habitable.
There where three smaller points brought up by yourself and others that I think where interesting:
1. The ethics of Terraforming in general.
This is more speculative, but have a look at Isaac Arthers YouTube channel. Its pointed out that “Classical” terraforming can only really take place on Mars and Venus, and its not the most efficient use of energy/space/matter. The comparison is imagine a mountain with a cave. Mankind lives in the cave. Terraforming is digging a new cave. Dyson Swarming habitats around the Sun is dismantling the mountain into bricks and building houses. Now that is a expanded topic!
2. Deva.
This reminded me of a guy who told me about Kami and Shino. How permission would be needed before Terraforming began as it would, like chopping down (or urinating on) a tree disrupt them. However more Kami would follow mankind to Mars, so things would be O.K.
3. Sujato’s 'cultures’
This quote struck me “The more that time goes on, the more it becomes clear that the cultures of real worth are those who never wanted to colonize anyone else. Those who are true visionaries, whose morality is that of an actual livable future for humanity, are not imposing their will on the skies; they are growing their roots in the earth.” Perhaps this is the moment then to correct this error? While I would disagree with " imposing their will on the skies" having those who could illuminate a path on the rocket, and help guide others to a more ‘good’ path in life may be a way to get the new nation of the Martians off to a good start.
I realize this has gone on too long, if you want to edit and post sections to the forum please feel free to do so. Its been great to collect my thoughts in one place, as I do try to think carefully before committing any actions.
Yours,
Ollie