1) The person who believes in rebirth has nothing to lose, and everything to gain
Scenario A: There is factually no rebirth
- Even though they were wrong, they gain nothing, they lose nothing. There is simply complete nothingness. (Some call this Nibbana)
Scenario B: There factually IS rebirth
- Here they gain immensely. Since their views are in keeping with the true nature of reality, they are born again with Right View. Thus, they travel close to the road of enlightenment.
2) The person who does NOT believe in rebirth has nothing to gain, and everything to lose.
Scenario A: There is factually no rebirth
- Although they were right, they gain nothing, they lose nothing. There is simply complete nothingness. (Nibbana?)
Scenario B: There factually IS rebirth
- Here they lose in the gravest way possible. Since their views are not in keeping with the true nature of reality, they are born again with Wrong View. Thus, they travel for an unforeseeable series of lives clinging to ignorance. That is, until such time as they change their view.
The stakes are indescribably high. Choosing the one path, one can only win. Choosing the other path, one can only lose.
A wise person chooses the path of utmost safety.
MN 60 (https://suttacentral.net/en/mn601):
"âSince there actually is another world, one who holds the view âthere is no other worldâ has wrong view. Since there actually is another world, one who intends âthere is no other worldâ has wrong intention. Since there actually is another world, one who makes the statement âthere is no other worldâ has wrong speech. Since there actually is another world, one who says âthere is no other worldâ is opposed to those arahants who know the other world. Since there actually is another world, one who convinces another âthere is no other worldâ convinces him to accept an untrue Dhamma; and because he convinces another to accept an untrue Dhamma, he praises himself and disparages others. Thus any pure virtue that he formerly had is abandoned and corrupt conduct is substituted. And this wrong view, wrong intention, wrong speech, opposition to noble ones, convincing another to accept an untrue Dhamma, and self-praise and disparagement of othersâthese several evil unwholesome states thus come into being with wrong view as their condition.
A.iii âAbout this a wise man considers thus: âIf there is no other world, then on the dissolution of the body this good person will have made himself safe enough. But if there is another world, then on the dissolution of the body, after death, he will reappear in a state of deprivation, in an unhappy destination, in perdition, even in hell. Now whether or not the word of those good recluses and brahmins is true, let me assume that there is no other world: still this good person is here and now censured by the wise as an immoral person, one of wrong view who holds the doctrine of nihilism. But on the other hand, if there is another world, then this good person has made an unlucky throw on both counts: since he is censured by the wise here and now, and since on the dissolution of the body, after death, he will reappear in a state of deprivation, in an unhappy destination, in perdition, even in hell. He has wrongly accepted and undertaken this incontrovertible teaching in such a way that it extends only to one side and excludes the wholesome alternative.â"